NIGERIA TV INFO — BUSINESS NEWS

Coronation Group Forecasts Nigeria’s Oil Output at 1.7–1.8mbpd in 2026

Lagos — Coronation Group has projected that Nigeria’s crude oil production will stabilise between 1.7 million and 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, well below the Federal Government’s ambitious 2.5 million bpd target.

The Nigerian financial services firm made the projection in its 2025 economic review and 2026 outlook, noting that although the oil and gas sector remained a major pillar of the economy last year, persistent structural and operational challenges continued to weigh on output.

Coronation Group said Nigeria’s upstream sector struggled through 2025 amid volatile global oil prices, pipeline disruptions, theft, underinvestment, and delayed infrastructure upgrades. These factors, it noted, limited the country’s ability to ramp up production despite renewed policy efforts and reforms aimed at boosting investor confidence.

“The industry showed resilience in 2025, but production recovery remained slower than expected,” the Group stated, warning that capacity constraints and security concerns across key oil-producing regions would likely persist into 2026.

The firm explained that while ongoing efforts to curb crude theft and rehabilitate pipelines could support modest improvements, they would not be sufficient to push output anywhere near the government’s 2.5 million bpd aspiration in the short term.

Coronation Group also highlighted that Nigeria continued to face declining output from aging oil fields, while new investments in exploration and production had yet to fully mature.

Despite the subdued production outlook, the Group said the oil and gas sector would remain central to Nigeria’s fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings, urging policymakers to sustain reforms, strengthen security around oil assets, and accelerate investments in new fields.

Analysts say the more conservative forecast reflects growing caution among market watchers who believe Nigeria’s production growth will depend heavily on infrastructure security, regulatory stability, and faster project execution.